Based on what is actually happening, not on unfulfilled promises, the world will surpass 2ahClass C warming will occur in the early 2040s, making it unlikely to be a comfortable place to live (even for succulents).
ExxonMobil’s World in 2050
ExxonMobil’s predictions for the world in 2050 are quite depressing, with there likely to be more than 2 billion more people than there are today.
- The economy will more than double.
- Power usage increases by 80%.
- Oil and natural gas will provide more than 50% of the world’s energy.
- Natural gas usage will increase by 20%.
- Solar and wind power provides 11% of the world’s energy.
- Energy-related CO2 emissions will fall by 25% to just 25 billion tons per year.
According to ExxonMobil, three “scalable technologies” hold the key to this golden future: carbon capture and storage, hydrogen fuels, and biofuels. And three driving forces will accelerate the energy transition, involving governments, businesses, universities, and everyone else.
- Public policy support: increased funding and reduced regulation for the private sector.
- Advances in technology: Governments avoid picking winners and losers.
- Market-driven solutions: Any market.
It’s easy to make fun of me, but what’s really scary in all of this is that ExxonMobil’s predictions may be closer to the mark of what 2050 will be than many others. These are based on an analysis of what is actually happening (and not happening) right now, rather than what needs to happen to reach net zero and stabilize global warming. If ExxonMobil is right, we will be truly rich by 2050.
Of course, ExxonMobil is not just an objective observer here or a messenger begging not to be shot. It has high stakes and a major impact on both the destination and the journey, and as the following quote shows, this report aims to present self-serving but dubious claims as authoritative and convincing fact. are keen to take advantage of it.
“Energy use and rising standards of living are closely linked. You cannot have one without the other. Fossil fuels are essential to the manufacturing, commercial transportation, and industrial sectors that drive modern economies. It continues to be the most effective way to produce the large amounts of energy needed for creation and support.”
The second sentence may not apply to energy use and living standards, just as Frank Sinatra incorrectly suggested it was about love and marriage.
Climate Tracker Today’s World
Confirming ExxonMobil’s bleak 2050 outlook in many ways, Climate Tracker recently reported that:
- Not a single company in the world’s largest producing countries has committed to stop investing in oil and gas production. In fact, they are increasing them.
- Major fossil fuel producing countries such as the United States, Canada, Norway, and Australia are planning to expand their production and exports of fossil fuels, rather than taking the lead in phasing out fossil fuels.
- Despite promises, most governments have not been able to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies.
- G7 countries continue to provide public financial support to overseas natural gas projects, despite pledging to end new financial support in 2022.
- Major oil and gas companies have abandoned plans to cut investment in production and are now increasing investment. They are also promoting technologies such as carbon capture and storage that extend oil and gas production.
- Greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing.
- Current policies put the world on track for 2.7ahGlobal warming will progress by 2100.
Climate Tracker says Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ on new permits for oil and gas production, setting an end date for oil and gas production, ending fossil fuel subsidies and promoting carbon capture and storage did. The only area where Australia was seen to be taking ‘positive action’ was in creating favorable conditions for renewable energy.
So what will be 2ahC Is this what a warm world looks like?
NASA has released a high-resolution (25x25km square) database that records daily climate conditions across the Earth’s surface from 1950 to 2100. This makes it possible to predict when the average global temperature will reach 2 degrees Celsius.ahdegrees Celsius above pre-industrial 1850-1900 levels (the “transit years”), global and regional climate conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed) and their effects (e.g., heat stress and fire weather) ). “Crossover years” compared to the 1950-1979 average.
The results are not good:
- Depending on the level of emissions in the near future, the “transit year” will be between 2041 (higher emissions) and 2044 (lower emissions). Fundamentally, we have done so little for so long that no matter what we do about emissions over the next 20 years, even if global warming exceeds his 2 degrees, there will be no substantial It won’t make a difference.
To avoid confusion, a “cross year” does not mean a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees in one year. This is a high bar when the 30-year average exceeds his 2 degrees.
- “Crossover Year” refers to land warming and Ocean. The average temperature increase on land, where most of us spend most of our time, will be 2.3 to 2.8 years at the “crossroads of the year”.ahC. Warming will exceed 3 degrees in Greenland, Alaska, and northern Asia.ahC.
Below, for the sake of brevity, we have broadly summarized the findings of the early 2040s on land compared to baseline values from 1950 to 1979.
- Precipitation will increase globally by about 20 mm per year, but there will be considerable variation. Canada, Greenland, northern Europe, northern Asia, and tropical Africa are expected to see an increase of 50-150 mm per year, while tropical South America is expected to see a decrease of 100-150 mm per year. Most parts of Australia will experience up to 50 mm less annual rainfall.
- Globally, relative humidity is expected to drop by about 0.7% as land warms more than the ocean. However, there are still large regional differences, with a 1.7% decline in the Amazon and a 3-4% increase in India being the most worrying. Most parts of Australia experience slightly lower relative humidity.
- Wind speeds are expected to continue decreasing in the long term, decreasing by a further 0.04 m/s. The largest decreases (0.12 m/s) will be seen in North America and northern Europe, while much of the Southern Hemisphere will remain unchanged or increase slightly. The largest increase (0.03 m/s) is seen in the Amazon. Little change is visible across Australia.
- Solar radiation will increase by about 15 watts per square meter, and even more in the Sahara Desert, the Middle East, and central and northwestern Australia.
- Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and radiation result in nearly the entire world being exposed to fire weather. The areas most affected are all of Australia, the United States, southern Africa and semi-arid regions of central Asia.
- Most regions of the world will be exposed to greater heat stress, both in terms of higher wet bulb temperatures (2.5°C).ahC) and the number of extremely hot days per year.Australia can expect 1.5ahThe wet bulb temperature is higher than C, and there are about 10 to 15 days of extremely hot days a year.
By the time we reach the Year of the Crossroads, changed climate conditions and their impacts will have a clear impact on human health, daily life, crop yields, and the design of buildings, cities, and transportation systems. Probably. Changes in temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and rainfall also affect energy production from solar, wind, and water resources. Individual species of plants and animals, and entire ecosystems, adapt to changed climatic conditions with varying degrees of success.
Heat + humidity = danger
If you are having trouble understanding the concept of wet bulb temperatures, at what levels they become dangerous to human health and survival, and what you can do to combat high wet bulb temperatures, check out this article in Nature Details including research results are included. The research is being carried out at the University of Sydney to investigate how changes in temperature and humidity levels affect heart and kidney function. The map below shows the highest wet bulb temperatures in recent decades.
Based primarily on theory, the wet bulb temperature is believed to be around 35 degrees, depending on the individual and conditions.ahC is within the human tolerance range. Recent empirical studies have lowered this to approximately 31.ahC, and global warming was suggested to exceed 1.5.ahReach 2 with CahIn the Middle East, India, sub-Saharan Africa and China, increasing numbers of people will be exposed to dangerously hot and humid environments.If global warming reaches 3 degrees, the Americas and northern Australia will be increasingly affectedahC.
Wet bulb temperature has particular significance for people in the Northern Hemisphere during recent summers, when scorching “dry bulb” temperatures have felt an additional 6 to 11 degrees.ahIf the humidity is high (wet bulb temperature), the C will be high.
Even though it’s winter, average temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere are the highest on record. The temperature anomalies in both hemispheres from June to September 2023 are clearly shown in the map below.
Taraganda Forest Update
A month ago, I wrote about the NSW Forestry Corporation’s plans to log the Tallaganda Forest and the 40-day stop work order issued by the NSW Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in response to public outrage. reported.
The size of the trees cut down in the forest and the extent of the destruction can be clearly seen in the photo below (courtesy of Nature Conservancies Australia).
In recent weeks, Wilderness Australia, WWF and South East Forest Rescue have surveyed flying squirrels and their burrows in the trees of Taraganda Forest and submitted a report to the EPA. We are pleased to report that EPA has extended the Stop Work Order for an additional 40 days until November 13th.th. Watch this space.
Succulents: separate evolution to similar results
I had about 30 minutes to spare near Sydney’s Royal Botanic Gardens, so I wandered into the succulent garden. This is probably the first time this has happened since the coronavirus outbreak. We all know that succulents grow in arid regions, but we didn’t know that their distribution is very limited outside of the Americas and Africa.
I also didn’t know that the agave of the Americas and the aloe of Africa (both “leafy succulents”) developed completely separately, even though they look very similar. This is an example of parallel evolution. This also applies to “stem succulents” such as cacti in the Americas and euphorbias in Africa.
It was traditionally believed that Australia had very few succulents, but in recent years this idea has been challenged and it appears that there are now more than 400 succulents in Australia.
Unfortunately, like countless other plants, many species of succulents are at risk of extinction as a result of habitat loss for housing and agriculture, climate change, invasive species, and even overharvesting. I am.