What’s new in this year’s report
The report reveals that progress has been made since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Based on the policies in place, greenhouse gas emissions were projected to increase by 16% in 2030 at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Currently, the expected increase is 3%. However, projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 would need to be reduced by 28% under the Paris Agreement’s 2°C pathway and 42% under the 1.5°C pathway.
As it stands, full implementation of the unconditional national contributions (NDCs) made under the Paris Agreement would put the world on track to limit temperature rise this century to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. Full implementation of the conditional NDC reduces this to 2.5°C.
The report calls on all countries to accelerate low-carbon development transformation across their economies. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for their emissions need to take more ambitious action and support developing countries in their pursuit of low-emission development growth.
The report explores how stronger implementation increases the likelihood of the next NDCs, scheduled for 2025, to a level where greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 are consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. We are considering whether there is a possibility of reduction. We also consider the potential and risks of carbon removal methods, including nature-based solutions and direct capture and storage of atmospheric carbon.